← Serie A 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Trefoloni
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 44% | 14% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 63% | 3.20 | value: +100% ⚠ |
| Palermo win | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 23 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.