← Serie A 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Pieri
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AC Milan win | 48% | 67% | 1.90 | value: +26% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.25 | fair |
| Messina win | 24% | 2% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 23 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 3 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.