← Serie A 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Racalbuto
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Draw | 53% | 15% | 1.66 | fair |
| Empoli win | 32% | 78% | 2.75 | value: +114% ⚠ |
| Siena win | 15% | 7% | 6.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.