← Serie A 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Rizzoli
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| US Lecce win | 38% | 54% | 2.40 | value: +29% ⚠ |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 32% | 8% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 38% | 3.00 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.