← Serie A 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Palanca
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Chievo win | 47% | 66% | 2.00 | value: +32% ⚠ |
| Draw | 32% | 18% | 2.87 | fair |
| Siena win | 22% | 16% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.