← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, May 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 49% | 55% | 1.91 | value: +4% |
| Valencia CF win | 28% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Barcelona +0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 66% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 63' | 🟨 | César Tárrega · Valencia CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Unai Núñez · Valencia CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | Javier Guerra · Valencia CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Andreas Christensen · FC Barcelona |
| 71' | ⚽ | Luis Rioja · Valencia CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marc Bernal · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Guido Rodríguez · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| coach days | 326.00 | 752.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1714.47 | 2040.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.72 | 5.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 46.00 | 94.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 90.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 68.40 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 5.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 2.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 1.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | 1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.66 | 26.06 |
| state index | 0.59 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 2.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.16 |