← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, May 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Martinez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 60% | 61% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +8% |
| Athletic Club win | 19% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Athletic Club −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 60% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 40% | 2.75 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Thiago Pitarch · Real Madrid CF |
| 12' | ⚽ | Gonzalo García · Real Madrid CF |
| 20' | 🟨 | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 51' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 88' | ⚽ | Brahim Díaz · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Urko Izeta · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 264.00 | 1452.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.29 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1983.62 | 1709.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.60 | -20.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.94 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| league points | 83.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 29.83 |
| state index | 1.17 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.19 |