← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, May 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Hernandez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 53% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.80 | value: +14% |
| Elche CF win | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona −0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Elche CF −0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Buba Sangare · Elche CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Álvaro Rodriguez · Elche CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bryan Gil · Girona |
| 47' | 🟨 | David Affengruber · Elche CF |
| 48' | ⚽ | Arnau Martínez · Girona |
| 60' | 🟨 | Vitor Reis · Girona |
| 83' | 🟨 | Claudio Echeverri · Girona |
| 85' | 🟨 | Thomas Lemar · Girona |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marc Aguado · Elche CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Germán Valera · Elche CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Montilivi |
| coach days | 326.00 | 691.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1671.09 | 1651.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.02 | 4.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.87 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 40.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.42 | 28.39 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 0.91 |