← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, May 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Manzano
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 45% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 26% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 46% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 54% | 2.10 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 11 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Mendizorrotza |