← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, May 17, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Alberola
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Levante UD win | 47% | 36% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +20% |
| Mallorca win | 25% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mallorca −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Levante UD −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 45% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 55% | 1.93 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |