← Primera Division 2025-26 · Thu, May 14, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Sesma
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Girona win | 50% | 55% | 1.91 | value: +5% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 26% | 23% | 3.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Girona −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Montilivi |