← Primera Division 2025-26 · Wed, May 13, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Martinez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 41% | 38% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.90 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 70% | 56% | 1.36 | fair |
| Over | 30% | 44% | 3.20 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Martín Satriano · Getafe CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · Mallorca |
| 41' | ⚽ | Martín Satriano · Getafe CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 63' | ⚽ | Zaid Romero · Getafe CF |
| 65' | ⚽ | Omar Mascarell · Mallorca |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pablo Torre · Mallorca |
| 78' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Davinchi · Getafe CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mario Martín · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Coliseum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1138.00 |
| 224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1645.18 | 1643.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.55 | 20.64 |
| eye test v1 | -1.69 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| league points | 45.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.13 | 3.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.55 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.61 | 28.70 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.31 |