← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Hernandez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 57% | 60% | 1.65 | fair |
| Real Madrid CF win | 23% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona −0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Real Madrid CF −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 65% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 35% | 3.20 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · FC Barcelona |
| 18' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 40' | 🟨 | Eduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dani Olmo · FC Barcelona |
| 52' | 🟨 | Raúl Asencio · Real Madrid CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 81' | 🟨 | Trent Alexander-Arnold · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 739.00 | 251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| elo | 2044.00 | 1987.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.19 | -10.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 1.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.95 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.90 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 88.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 91.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.59 | 2.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.10 | 1.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.85 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 25.78 | 25.61 |
| state index | 1.92 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.01 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 1.89 |