← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Soto Grado
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Getafe CF win | 34% | 27% | 2.80 | fair |
| Oviedo win | 34% | 40% | 2.80 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Getafe CF +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Oviedo +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 72% | 64% | 1.33 | fair |
| Over | 28% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere |