← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, May 9, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Ruiz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 37% | 35% | 2.60 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 36% | 32% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.50 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Betis Balompié +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 49% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 51% | 2.20 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand