← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, May 3, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Sesma
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Getafe CF win | 46% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 24% | 3.10 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 23% | 31% | 4.10 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 66% | 50% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 50% | 2.75 | value: +39% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand