← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Diaz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 57% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 21% | 22% | 4.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona +0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| CA Osasuna +0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 60% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Juan Cruz · CA Osasuna |
| 24' | 🟨 | Pablo Gavi · FC Barcelona |
| 60' | 🟨 | Eric García · FC Barcelona |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 81' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 86' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 88' | ⚽ | Raúl García de Haro · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 305.00 | 731.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1719.07 | 2040.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.97 | -4.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 46.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 2.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 42.00 | 85.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 91.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 68.40 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 7.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 1.98 |
| solidity v1 | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.71 | 26.08 |
| state index | 0.71 | 1.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | 1.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.85 |