← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Hernandez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 54% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 23% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Villarreal CF −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 37% | 2.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kervin Arriaga · Levante UD |
| 51' | ⚽ | Carlos Espí · Levante UD |
| 55' | 🟨 | Renato Veiga · Villarreal CF |
| 62' | ⚽ | Alberto Moleiro · Villarreal CF |
| 68' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Villarreal CF |
| 87' | ⚽ | Tajon Buchanan · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Thomas Partey · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Ceramica |
| coach days | 913.00 | 213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1806.57 | 1653.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.46 | 26.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| league points | 65.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 5.71 | 4.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | -0.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.49 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 27.15 |
| state index | 1.03 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.51 |