← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 26, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Quintero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 49% | 49% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 25% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Villarreal CF −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (pen) | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 14' | 🟨 | Marcos Alonso · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 18' | 🟨 | Alfonso Pedraza · Villarreal CF |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ionuț Radu · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 29' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Villarreal CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pépé · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pablo Durán · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pape Gueye · Villarreal CF |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 74' | 🟨 | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio de la Ceramica |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ilaix Moriba · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 907.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1800.01 | 1735.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.78 | -54.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| league points | 62.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 2.98 | 3.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 1.05 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 26.86 |
| state index | 0.78 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.10 |