← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 50% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 21% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Sevilla FC −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Gabriel Suazo · Sevilla FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 66' | 🟨 | Djibril Sow · Sevilla FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Neal Maupay · Sevilla FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Raúl García de Haro · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raúl García de Haro · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.06 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 299.00 | 207.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1713.02 | 1627.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.24 | -25.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -1.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| league points | 39.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 4.98 | 2.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.80 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 0.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 28.65 | 26.13 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 0.80 |