← Primera Division 2025-26 · Wed, Apr 22, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Busquets
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 41% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 36% | 3.00 | value: +8% |
| Getafe CF win | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Abdelkabir Abqar · Getafe CF |
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Jon Gorrotxategi · Getafe CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Orri Steinn Óskarsson · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 37' | 🟨 | Juan Iglesias · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pablo Marín · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 67' | 🟨 | Duje Ćaleta-Car · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álex Remiro · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luis Milla · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastián Boselli · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| coach days |
| 203.00 |
| 1117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1693.98 | 1656.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.14 | 30.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.83 |
| league points | 42.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 33.20 |
| rest days | 11.25 | 8.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -1.90 |
| solidity v1 | -0.94 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 28.82 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.06 |