← Primera Division 2025-26 · Wed, Apr 22, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 39% | 31% | 2.45 | fair |
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 35% | 36% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.70 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Elche CF +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 63% | 1.73 | value: +10% |
| Under | 45% | 37% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Nicolás González · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 18' | ⚽ | David Affengruber · Elche CF |
| 30' | 🟥 | Thiago Almada · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | André Silva · Elche CF |
| 34' | ⚽ | Nicolás González · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 36' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 38' | 🟨 | Julio Díaz · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 45' | 🟨 | Buba Sangare · Elche CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aleix Febas · Elche CF |
| 75' | ⚽ | André Silva · Elche CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |
| coach days |
| 660.00 |
| 5256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1595.54 | 1837.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.92 | -14.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| league points | 32.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 11.11 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.84 | -1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.30 | 28.05 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 2.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 0.99 |