← Primera Division 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 21, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: I. Galech
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Girona win | 39% | 33% | 2.40 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Girona −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 48% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 52% | 1.98 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Montilivi |