← Primera Division 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: V. Garcia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 50% | 47% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 22% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| CA Osasuna −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 55% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Mikel Jauregizar · Athletic Club |
| 16' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 48' | 🟨 | Aimar Oroz · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mikel Jauregizar · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mikel Jauregizar · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moi Gómez · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days |
| 1420.00 |
| 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1672.98 | 1678.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.19 | -8.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 38.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 8.92 | 9.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.56 |
| solidity v1 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 29.01 | 29.49 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.54 |