← Primera Division 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Quintero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 37% | 29% | 2.60 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 41% | 3.00 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Getafe CF +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 69% | 1.50 | value: +4% |
| Over | 36% | 31% | 2.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Carlos Espí · Levante UD |
| 46' | 🟨 | Luis Vázquez · Getafe CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Zaid Romero · Getafe CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Getafe CF |
| 83' | ⚽ | Carlos Espí · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iván Romero · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zaid Romero · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Zaid Romero · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 24 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| coach days | 194.00 | 1108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1628.65 | 1710.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.03 | 59.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.83 |
| league points | 26.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 30.40 |
| rest days | 9.29 | 8.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -1.93 |
| solidity v1 | -0.53 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 27.97 |
| state index | 0.48 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.71 | -1.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.10 |