← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 12, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Guzman
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 47% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 26% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Athletic Club −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Pau Navarro · Villarreal CF |
| 26' | ⚽ | Sergi Cardona · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alfon González · Villarreal CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Tajon Buchanan · Villarreal CF |
| 84' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andoni Gorosabel · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 15 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days |
| 1411.00 |
| 893.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1682.88 | 1746.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.87 | -5.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 38.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 7.29 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.11 | 26.52 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.55 |