← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 12, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Manzano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 39% | 48% | 2.45 | value: +18% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 33% | 24% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Mallorca −0.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 46% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 54% | 2.00 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Nobel Mendy · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 32' | 🟨 | Florian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 36' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 40' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 53' | 🟨 | Randy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 65' | 🟨 | Andrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jan Virgili · Mallorca |
| 80' | 🟨 | David López · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadi Mallorca Son Moix |
| coach days |
| 193.00 |
| 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 4.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1622.84 | 1681.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.87 | -3.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| league points | 31.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.93 | 29.51 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.64 |