← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 12, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Sesma
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 41% | 44% | 2.30 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 30% | 24% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 42% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 58% | 2.05 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli · Real Betis Balompié |
| 24' | 🟨 | Sergi Altimira · Real Betis Balompié |
| 29' | 🟨 | Héctor Bellerín · Real Betis Balompié |
| 34' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 39' | 🟨 | Antony · Real Betis Balompié |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jorge Herrando · CA Osasuna |
| 67' | 🟨 | Juan Cruz · CA Osasuna |
| 67' | 🟨 | Cucho Hernández · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days |
| 285.00 |
| 2080.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1678.48 | 1743.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.76 | -4.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.62 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 38.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 6.71 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 1.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.13 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 29.64 | 29.64 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 0.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.60 |