← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Diaz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 44% | 32% | 2.15 | fair |
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 30% | 37% | 3.20 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 44% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 56% | 2.00 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Akor Adams · Sevilla FC |
| 35' | ⚽ | Javier Boñar · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 36' | 🟨 | Manu Bueno · Sevilla FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Julio Díaz · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Juanlu Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peque Fernández · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Javi Morcillo |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 192.00 |
| 5245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1581.77 | 1861.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.24 | -0.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 31.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.39 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.78 | 27.66 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.98 |