← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 5, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Soto Grado
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 36% | 35% | 2.63 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 34% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Deportivo Alavés +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Asier Osambela · CA Osasuna |
| 4' | ⚽ | Valentin Rosier · CA Osasuna |
| 16' | 🟨 | Valentin Rosier · CA Osasuna |
| 41' | 🟨 | Antonio Blanco · Deportivo Alavés |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 44' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 87' | 🟨 | Flavien Boyomo · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ángel Pérez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iker Muñoz · CA Osasuna |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 |
| venue | Estadio Mendizorrotza |
| 🟨 |
| Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Boyé · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 186.00 | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1645.13 | 1721.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.30 | -2.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 31.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 14.16 | 15.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -1.25 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 28.53 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.51 |