← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 5, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: I. Galech
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 40% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +7% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 31% | 24% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 52% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Guido Rodríguez · Valencia CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Javi Rodríguez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marcos Alonso · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ilaix Moriba · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 60' | ⚽ | Fer López · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Hugo Sotelo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 81' | ⚽ | Williot Swedberg · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 84' | 🟨 | Guido Rodríguez · Valencia CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Guido Rodríguez · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 278.00 | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1710.24 | 1790.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.95 | 0.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 35.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 14.76 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.74 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.42 | 27.34 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.24 |