← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Sanchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 61% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 17% | 19% | 5.50 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF +1 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Mallorca +1 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Zito Luvumbo · Mallorca |
| 41' | ⚽ | Manu Morlanes · Mallorca |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dean Huijsen · Real Madrid CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Leo Román · Mallorca |
| 84' | 🟨 | Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 88' | ⚽ | Éder Militão · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Franco Mastantuono · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Estadi Mallorca Son Moix |
| coach days | 185.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1648.82 | 2023.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.88 | 46.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 1.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 28.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 14.05 | 12.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 1.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.17 | 26.13 |
| state index | -0.00 | 1.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 2.04 |