← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Manzano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 41% | 42% | 2.35 | fair |
| Oviedo win | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Levante UD −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 53% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Carlos Espí · Levante UD |
| 25' | ⚽ | Carlos Espí · Levante UD |
| 38' | 🟨 | Eric Bailly · Oviedo |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ilyas Chaira · Oviedo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alberto Reina · Oviedo |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Federico Viñas · Oviedo |
| 52' | ⚽ | Iker Losada · Levante UD |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kareem Tunde · Levante UD |
| 74' | 🟨 | Oriol Rey · Levante UD |
| 76' | 🟨 | Santi Cazorla · Oviedo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Iván Romero · Levante UD |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 171.00 |
| 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1589.85 | 1552.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.77 | 7.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 28.08 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.10 |