← Primera Division 2025-26 · Mon, Mar 16, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Soto Grado
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 51% | 61% | 1.85 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.50 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Levante UD −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 49% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Nobel Mendy · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 30' | 🟨 | Kareem Tunde · Levante UD |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 41' | ⚽ | Carlos Espí · Levante UD |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nobel Mendy · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 53' | 🟥 | Nobel Mendy · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jeremy Toljan · Levante UD |
| 66' | 🟨 | Paco Cortés · Levante UD |
| 88' | 🟨 | Matias Moreno · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Sánchez · Levante UD |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Campo de Futbol de Vallecas |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 258.00 | 166.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1722.63 | 1622.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.43 | -11.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| league points | 31.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 4.09 | 9.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.75 | 26.41 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.06 |