← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 15, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Martinez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 74% | 71% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 20% | 5.75 | value: +15% |
| Sevilla FC win | 10% | 9% | 10.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −1.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Barcelona −1.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 72% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 37' | 🟨 | Gabriel Suazo · Sevilla FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Dani Olmo · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | ⚽ | Oso · Sevilla FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 60' | ⚽ | João Cancelo · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Djibril Sow · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 683.00 | 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.47 |
| elo | 2020.00 | 1652.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.47 | 15.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.86 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 67.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 4.80 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.04 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.17 | 27.73 |
| state index | 1.65 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.47 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 0.66 |