← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Manzano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 73% | 79% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 5.75 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 11% | 4% | 9.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Elche CF −1.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 33% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Antonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid CF |
| 44' | ⚽ | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Eduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Germán Valera · Elche CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | David Affengruber · Elche CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | Dean Huijsen · Real Madrid CF |
| 85' | ⚽ (og) | Manuel Ángel Morán · Elche CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rafa Mir · Elche CF |
| 89' | ⚽ | Arda Güler · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days | 194.00 | 621.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 2003.01 | 1620.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.82 | -17.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 63.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | 1.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 27.01 |
| state index | 1.34 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | 1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.38 |