← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 8, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Guzman
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 46% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 23% | 20% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Boyé · Deportivo Alavés |
| 17' | 🟨 | Largie Ramazani · Valencia CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jon Guridi · Deportivo Alavés |
| 43' | 🟨 | Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim · Deportivo Alavés |
| 47' | ⚽ | Javier Guerra · Valencia CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jon Pacheco · Deportivo Alavés |
| 71' | ⚽ | Lucas Boyé · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jon Pacheco · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ander Guevara · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ander Guevara · Deportivo Alavés |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jon Pacheco · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ander Guevara · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | ⚽ | Eray Cömert · Valencia CF |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 250.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1656.75 | 1590.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.19 | -19.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.20 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | 0.68 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.78 | 28.26 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.51 |