← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 8, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: F. Maeso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 35% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 34% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 31% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Real Betis Balompié +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 70% | 68% | 1.36 | fair |
| Over | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Kiko Femenía · Getafe CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Abdelkabir Abqar · Getafe CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Getafe CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli · Real Betis Balompié |
| 45' | ⚽ | Martín Satriano · Getafe CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antony · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Coliseum |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1072.00 | 2045.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1625.81 | 1778.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.46 | 15.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 32.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 5.80 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | 0.25 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.48 | 29.15 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.63 |