← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Hernandez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 50% | 56% | 1.90 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.40 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 22% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −0.5 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Mallorca −0.5 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 48% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 52% | 2.20 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 23' | 🟨 | Pablo Torre · Mallorca |
| 27' | 🟨 | Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 35' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 60' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 61' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 69' | 🟨 | Leo Román · Mallorca |
| 73' | 🟥 | Jan Virgili · Mallorca |
| 82' | 🟥 | Raúl García de Haro · CA Osasuna |
| 87' | 🟨 | Victor Muñoz · CA Osasuna |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| ⚽ |
| Kike Barja · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samú Costa · Mallorca |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 249.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1687.51 | 1602.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.72 | -14.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| league points | 33.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.00 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 29.32 | 28.99 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.03 |