← Primera Division 2025-26 · Mon, Mar 2, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Ruiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 68% | 70% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +7% |
| Getafe CF win | 11% | 6% | 9.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −1.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Real Madrid CF −1.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Getafe CF |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Martín Satriano · Getafe CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Dean Huijsen · Real Madrid CF |
| 71' | 🟨 | Aurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Adrian Liso · Getafe CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Martín Satriano · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álvaro Carreras · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 🟥 |
| Franco Mastantuono · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adrian Liso · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Adrian Liso · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 182.00 | 1066.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1947.94 | 1607.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.71 | 24.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 60.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | -1.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 29.56 |
| state index | 1.58 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 0.97 |