← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 1, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: R. De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 54% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 21% | 16% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Real Betis Balompié −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 50% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 50% | 2.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Gabriel Suazo · Sevilla FC |
| 16' | ⚽ | Antony · Real Betis Balompié |
| 24' | 🟨 | Antony · Real Betis Balompié |
| 37' | ⚽ | Álvaro Fidalgo · Real Betis Balompié |
| 62' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Diego Llorente · Real Betis Balompié |
| 82' | 🟨 | Natan · Real Betis Balompié |
| 85' | 🟨 | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juanlu Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de La Cartuja |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 2038.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1784.96 | 1604.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.91 | 7.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 42.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 8.09 | 7.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.40 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.84 | 28.75 |
| state index | 1.12 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 0.91 |