← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 1, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: A. Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 39% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 30% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 56% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 44% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Valentin Rosier · CA Osasuna |
| 30' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Eray Cömert · Valencia CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sergio Herrera · CA Osasuna |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Largie Ramazani · Valencia CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Moi Gómez · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thierry Correia · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| coach days | 243.00 | 243.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1690.56 | 1739.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.18 | 45.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 26.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 6.80 | 7.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.55 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.43 | 28.80 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.26 |