← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: I. Diaz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 70% | 70% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.75 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 14% | 13% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF −1.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| FC Barcelona −1.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76% | 66% | 1.25 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 34% | 4.00 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 37' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 49' | ⚽ | Pape Gueye · Villarreal CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Marc Bernal · FC Barcelona |
| 56' | 🟨 | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alfonso Pedraza · Villarreal CF |
| 69' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days |
| 668.00 |
| 850.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1958.77 | 1751.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.69 | 10.51 |
| eye test v1 | 2.17 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 61.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.40 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 23.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 3.03 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 26.35 |
| state index | 1.82 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 3.35 | 1.35 |