← Primera Division 2025-26 · Fri, Feb 27, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Maeso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 35% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 35% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.10 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Levante UD +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 56% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 44% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Victor Parada · Deportivo Alavés |
| 51' | 🟨 | Paco Cortés · Levante UD |
| 61' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Deportivo Alavés |
| 61' | 🟨 | Victor Parada · Deportivo Alavés |
| 61' | 🟥 | Victor Parada · Deportivo Alavés |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lucas Boyé · Deportivo Alavés |
| 88' | 🟨 | Antonio Sivera · Deportivo Alavés |
| 88' | ⚽ | Carlos Espí · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Ibáñez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | ⚽ | Carlos Espí · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 149.00 | 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1572.24 | 1604.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.59 | 7.72 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| league points | 18.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 27.36 |
| state index | -0.72 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.59 | 1.51 |