← Primera Division 2025-26 · Mon, Feb 23, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 40% | 39% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 37% | 3.10 | value: +14% |
| Girona win | 29% | 24% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 58% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Lucas Boyé · Deportivo Alavés |
| 11' | 🟨 | Toni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 31' | ⚽ | Vladyslav Vanat · Girona |
| 49' | 🟨 | Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim · Deportivo Alavés |
| 73' | ⚽ | Viktor Tsygankov · Girona |
| 76' | 🟨 | Claudio Echeverri · Girona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Fran Beltrán · Girona |
| 89' | ⚽ | Lucas Boyé · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Mendizorrotza |
| coach days |
| 145.00 |
| 237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1605.45 | 1636.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.11 | 24.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 26.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 9.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 27.68 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.75 |