← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Manzano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 57% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 20% | 16% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Valencia CF −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Georges Mikautadze · Villarreal CF |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Largie Ramazani · Valencia CF |
| 31' | ⚽ | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Largie Ramazani · Valencia CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Santiago Mouriño · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Javier Guerra · Valencia CF |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Pape Gueye · Villarreal CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Unai Núñez · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Umar Sadiq · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio de la Ceramica |
| coach days |
| 844.00 |
| 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1746.14 | 1652.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.04 | 24.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 48.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 4.04 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 27.61 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.29 |