← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Quintero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 55% | 50% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 34% | 4.00 | value: +34% |
| CA Osasuna win | 21% | 16% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF +0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| CA Osasuna +0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 64% | 1.67 | value: +8% |
| Under | 43% | 36% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Aimar Oroz · CA Osasuna |
| 37' | 🟨 | Thibaut Courtois · Real Madrid CF |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 73' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Trent Alexander-Arnold · Real Madrid CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Alaba · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Raúl García de Haro · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 235.00 | 173.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1681.72 | 1957.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.39 | 7.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 30.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 3.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 1.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 29.02 | 26.19 |
| state index | 0.81 | 1.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.74 |