← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 15, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Diaz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 37% | 33% | 2.55 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 33% | 36% | 2.88 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Mallorca +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Diego Llorente · Real Betis Balompié |
| 18' | ⚽ | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli · Real Betis Balompié |
| 21' | 🟨 | Samú Costa · Mallorca |
| 44' | 🟨 | Aitor Ruibal · Real Betis Balompié |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cédric Bakambu · Real Betis Balompié |
| 50' | 🟨 | Manu Morlanes · Mallorca |
| 55' | 🟨 | Álvaro Valles · Real Betis Balompié |
| 59' | 🟨 | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 66' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadi Mallorca Son Moix |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 137.00 | 2024.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1627.63 | 1782.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.90 | -4.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 24.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 8.20 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -1.68 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.48 | 29.62 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.18 |