← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Maeso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 67% | 72% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.75 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 13% | 8% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −1.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −1.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 73% | 1.57 | value: +14% |
| Under | 40% | 27% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Gonzalo García · Real Madrid CF |
| 20' | 🟨 | Dean Huijsen · Real Madrid CF |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 31' | ⚽ | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Beñat Turrientes · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 166.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1942.44 | 1692.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.61 | 54.48 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 57.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.63 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 26.92 |
| state index | 1.71 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.60 |