← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: I. Galech
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 44% | 47% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.90 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 23% | 23% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 57% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 43% | 2.75 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Joan Jordán · Sevilla FC |
| 2' | 🟨 | Juanlu Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Juanlu Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 16' | 🟥 | Juanlu Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 42' | ⚽ | Djibril Sow · Sevilla FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Batista Mendy · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peque Fernández · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 136.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1592.91 | 1604.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.58 | -1.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 25.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 6.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -1.22 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.00 | 28.18 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.26 |